Elections in Chile: The Right's Historic Comeback

Chile held presidential and congressional elections on Sunday 16 November. Simply put, the right, in its different expressions, achieved its biggest victory in almost a century. José Antonio Kast, the candidate of the Republican Party and part of the opposition, came in second in the presidential race after obtaining 23.92% of the vote. When the percentage obtained by the other opposition candidates is added, the center-right and right received over 50% of the total vote. Furthermore, if we add part of the support received by Franco Parisi, leader of the “Partido de la Gente”, who can be considered part of the opposition, then the opposition bloc would total about 60%.

This contrasts with ruling coalition candidate Jeanette Jara, a member of the Communist Party, who obtained just 26.85%, far below projections of around 30% and with an expected 5–6-point difference over Kast. In the end the difference was just 3 points, reinforcing the perception that a Kast victory in the 14 December runoff election would appear practically inevitable.

The magnitude of this result goes beyond the electoral sphere. It confirms a profound shift in Chilean society toward political ideas associated with the right: a more pro-market, pro-growth agenda focused on order, contrasting with the direction taken in the last 15 years.

While congressional results were not as categorical as expected, the right is in a strong position to negotiate and enact laws, especially because the left was significantly weakened. While the ruling coalition got the most amount of representatives elected with 61, the opposition coalition as a whole, divided into two different coalitions, obtained 76. This leaves the opposition with 76 out of 155 seats (49%).

However, Parisi's party obtained 14 seats in the Lower House, and the right would achieve 50+1% with just three of them, which appears entirely feasible given that several of them have roots in right-wing parties. The fragmentation between the different right-wing forces prevented them from obtaining more seats, due to the particularities of the electoral system. Even so, the correlation of forces changed significantly. This electoral shift consolidates a change that began after rejection of the new Constitution in 2022. Chile appeared to have begun a leftward shift and to question the neoliberal model after the social outburst of 2019, but that cycle seems to have come to an end

In the regional context, this result is part of a broader movement: a clear shift toward rightwing governments and pro-market agendas in Latin America.